{"F": {"ts_code": "603119.SH", "name": "浙江荣泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.95, "pe_ttm": 72.7606, "pb": 10.5787, "dv_ttm": 0.3768, "total_mv": 2220077.7, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.9, 34.2, 35.6, 37.1, 34.5, 34.9], "rev_series": [3.6, 5.2, 6.7, 8.0, 11.3, 13.8], "np_series": [0.3, 1.0, 1.3, 1.7, 2.3, 2.8], "roe_series": [13.3, 32.8, 28.8, 15.7, 13.2, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.0, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 20.4, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 10.58, "capex_dep": 4.95, "interest_debt": 5.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 36.1, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": 29.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 27.3, "np_cagr3": 27.7, "rev_yoy": 56.9, "np_yoy": 21.7, "np_vol": 91.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 55.0, "fwd_pe2": 38.0, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 1.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["云母复合材料及相关产品", 44.0], ["云母制品等", 44.0], ["精密结构件及相关产品", 5.0], ["精密结构件", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 425.6, "ret_prev2_year": 21.5, "ret_ytd": -47.1, "ret_pivot": 370.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.8, "ret_60": -33.9, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -54.5, "vol_250": 63.5, "pos_52w": 50.1}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 62, "hard": 30, "bondness": 17}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 72.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 55.0 倍,次年 38.0 倍,PEG 1.22。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.9%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 4.95 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -34% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "浙江荣泰:PE 比行业中位高 42.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}