{"F": {"ts_code": "603117.SH", "name": "万林物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "跨境物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.07, "pe_ttm": 638.0279, "pb": 2.3681, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 243873.4639, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 27.5, 7.9, 26.2, 32.7, 30.1], "rev_series": [7.2, 5.8, 4.5, 3.9, 2.9, 2.5], "np_series": [0.5, -2.8, -6.0, -2.3, 0.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [2.1, -13.3, -35.7, -18.0, 1.3, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.3, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 8.8, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -32.8, "npm_median": -62.7, "roe_median": -13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.3, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 21.2, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -17.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": -118.1, "np_vol": 292.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["装卸业务", 42.0], ["基础物流", 5.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -22.7, "ret_prev2_year": 84.6, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": -6.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.1, "ret_60": 3.6, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": -27.2, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 90, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 638 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -32.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 638.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 4% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "万林物流:PE 比行业中位高 616.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 38.7个百分点。"]}}