{"F": {"ts_code": "603115.SH", "name": "海星股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190809", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 77.68, "pe_ttm": 77.8134, "pb": 9.089, "dv_ttm": 0.7639, "total_mv": 1899917.6368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 27.6, 24.9, 20.4, 21.3, 21.9], "rev_series": [12.2, 16.5, 17.7, 17.9, 19.3, 23.0], "np_series": [1.3, 2.2, 2.3, 1.4, 1.6, 2.1], "roe_series": [10.0, 13.8, 11.4, 6.8, 8.0, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.6, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.2, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.09, "capex_dep": 3.01, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 38.2, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 87.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.1, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 24.2, "np_yoy": 57.2, "np_vol": 37.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 56.8, "fwd_pe2": 27.4, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 107.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["化成箔", 48.0], ["腐蚀箔", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.7, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": 328.9, "ret_pivot": 710.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -15.0, "ret_120": 146.5, "ret_250": 338.9, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 77.1, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 50, "hard": 53, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 77.8 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 3.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 339%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -15% / 146%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "海星股份:PE 比行业中位低 16.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}