{"F": {"ts_code": "603113.SH", "name": "金能科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6303, "dv_ttm": 5.0509, "total_mv": 475154.736, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.1, 13.8, 4.0, 3.3, 1.8, 1.4], "rev_series": [75.5, 119.8, 168.0, 145.8, 162.7, 169.1], "np_series": [8.9, 9.3, 2.5, 1.4, -0.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [12.7, 11.1, 2.9, 1.6, -0.7, 0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 168.9, "np_ttm": -5.9, "ocf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_ttm": -10.3, "fcf_yield": -21.7, "ocf_yield": -9.3, "gm_median": 3.3, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": -0.39, "gm_chg_2022": -14.0, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.4, "fix_assets": 87.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.63, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 87.5, "debt_ebitda": 33.0, "debt_ratio": 61.8, "debt_mv": 184.1, "payout": 804.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": -55.4, "rev_yoy": -0.3, "np_yoy": -2327.2, "np_vol": 93.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 29.0, "fwd_pe2": 23.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["烯烃产品", 16.0], ["烯烃", 16.0], ["炭黑系列产品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.0, "ret_prev2_year": -31.0, "ret_ytd": -7.6, "ret_pivot": 35.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.4, "ret_60": 18.1, "ret_120": -31.3, "ret_250": -27.3, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 43.9, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 71, "bondness": 100}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "亏损或困境", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 33.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.3%,稳定度 -39%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -21.7%(经营现金流/市值 -9.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.3%,稳定度 -39%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 18% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "金能科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}