{"F": {"ts_code": "603111.SH", "name": "康尼机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.27, "pe_ttm": 14.748, "pb": 1.3592, "dv_ttm": 4.6813, "total_mv": 540493.2489, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.7, 35.8, 32.0, 34.6, 31.3, 31.1], "rev_series": [33.3, 35.3, 32.9, 35.2, 39.7, 41.9], "np_series": [4.3, 3.7, 2.7, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5], "roe_series": [15.5, 11.7, 7.7, 9.3, 9.0, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.9, "np_ttm": 3.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 7.5, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 32.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.0, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.36, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 44.9, "debt_mv": 6.8, "payout": 64.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": 9.4, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 9.7, "np_vol": 19.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["轨道分部", 23.0], ["轨道车辆装备产品及服务", 19.0], ["新能源分部", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.5, "ret_prev2_year": 13.7, "ret_ytd": -4.3, "ret_pivot": 39.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 9.4, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -31.0, "vol_250": 26.3, "pos_52w": 78.1}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 53, "hard": 10, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 64%、股息率 4.7%、营收 3 年复合 8.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.0%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.7 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 9% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "康尼机电:PE 比行业中位低 11.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点。"]}}