{"F": {"ts_code": "603107.SH", "name": "上海汽配", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.05, "pe_ttm": 29.9165, "pb": 1.9374, "dv_ttm": 2.4896, "total_mv": 406488.675, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.1, 19.1, 19.5, 20.8, 21.1, 19.1], "rev_series": [null, null, 16.4, 19.1, 21.5, 22.4], "np_series": [null, null, 1.3, 1.6, 1.9, 1.6], "roe_series": [18.0, 12.9, 16.6, 11.5, 9.3, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.9, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 24.2, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 53.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.0, "np_cagr3": 6.5, "rev_yoy": 2.2, "np_yoy": -24.4, "np_vol": 23.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["汽车热管理系统产品", 39.0], ["汽车发动机系统产品", 9.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.0, "ret_prev2_year": -27.8, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": -17.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -17.7, "ret_250": -25.7, "mdd_250": -31.8, "vol_250": 19.2, "pos_52w": 74.0}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 48, "hard": 35, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.9 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -3% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "上海汽配:PE 比行业中位低 0.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点。"]}}