{"F": {"ts_code": "603106.SH", "name": "恒银科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.08, "pe_ttm": 171.6253, "pb": 3.1896, "dv_ttm": 0.2475, "total_mv": 420580.16, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 21.8, 5.3, -1.1, 25.7, 32.9], "rev_series": [9.2, 7.1, 5.9, 4.3, 4.4, 3.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, -1.5, -2.1, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [2.0, 1.2, -9.8, -15.2, 3.1, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 12.8, "gm_stab": 0.41, "gm_chg_2022": -15.9, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 18.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -14.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -41.2, "np_yoy": -46.5, "np_vol": 366.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["现金类设备及服务", 22.0], ["现金类自助设备", 22.0], ["非现金类设备及服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.4, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": -24.3, "ret_pivot": 55.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.6, "ret_60": 15.4, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -35.6, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 29, "hard": 27, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 172 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 41%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 171.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 15% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "恒银科技:PE 比行业中位高 119.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}