{"F": {"ts_code": "603105.SH", "name": "芯能科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "光伏发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180709", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.93, "pe_ttm": 33.1678, "pb": 1.9146, "dv_ttm": 2.5221, "total_mv": 396509.0402, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.0, 54.8, 54.9, 57.4, 58.8, 56.0], "rev_series": [4.3, 4.5, 6.5, 6.9, 6.9, 7.4], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.9, 2.2, 1.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [5.4, 7.0, 11.4, 11.5, 9.1, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 9.9, "gm_median": 56.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": 28.1, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 78.0, "fix_assets": 34.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.8, "capex_dep": 1.23, "interest_debt": 20.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 50.6, "debt_mv": 51.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": 1.6, "rev_yoy": -10.9, "np_yoy": -77.1, "np_vol": 29.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["分布式光伏电站发电", 28.0], ["光伏发电", 28.0], ["光伏产品销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": -21.9, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 18.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.1, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -10.0, "mdd_250": -52.6, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 57.9}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 72, "hard": 100, "bondness": 61}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 30个百分点,营收 3 年复合 4.3%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 50%、股息率 2.5%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 20 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,资产负债率 51%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 2.5% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 33.2 倍 倒过来就是 3.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 78%、毛利率 56.0% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 78%,资本开支/折旧 1.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.2 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 4% / -24%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "芯能科技:PE 比行业中位高 5.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}