{"F": {"ts_code": "603103.SH", "name": "横店影视", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "院线", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171012", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.598, "dv_ttm": 0.8777, "total_mv": 1011549.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-40.4, 12.8, -9.9, 14.0, 3.2, 14.8], "rev_series": [9.1, 22.8, 14.3, 23.5, 19.7, 23.0], "np_series": [-4.8, 0.1, -3.2, 1.7, -1.0, 1.6], "roe_series": [-22.5, 0.8, -23.8, 13.2, -7.7, 13.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 9.4, "gm_stab": 0.26, "gm_chg_2022": 30.5, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.6, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 13.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 66.1, "debt_mv": 13.5, "payout": 56.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 17.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -41.2, "np_yoy": -130.5, "np_vol": 1014.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电影放映及相关衍生业务", 44.0], ["电影放映业务", 44.0], ["影视投资、制作及发行业务", 6.0], ["影视制作发行", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.4, "ret_prev2_year": -18.7, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": 66.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": -23.7, "ret_120": -32.0, "ret_250": -5.7, "mdd_250": -67.8, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 39.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 27, "hard": 18, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 66%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 26%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 30.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -24% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "横店影视:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}