{"F": {"ts_code": "603102.SH", "name": "百合股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "保健品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.7, "pe_ttm": 20.8785, "pb": 1.4453, "dv_ttm": 1.8857, "total_mv": 247680.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.7, 41.6, 36.4, 37.4, 36.5, 35.3], "rev_series": [5.8, 6.6, 7.3, 8.7, 8.0, 9.1], "np_series": [1.3, 1.5, 1.4, 1.7, 1.4, 1.3], "roe_series": [24.4, 22.9, 12.9, 11.5, 8.9, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 36.5, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 19.0, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 12.3, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 36.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": -2.3, "rev_yoy": 19.8, "np_yoy": -13.6, "np_vol": 15.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 20.4, "fwd_pe2": 18.0, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["功能饮品", 34.0], ["软胶囊", 27.0], ["粉剂", 17.0], ["片剂", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.7, "ret_prev2_year": -8.0, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 41.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": 14.1, "ret_120": -8.1, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 39.2, "pos_52w": 81.0}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 55, "hard": 33, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.9 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.5%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.5%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 14% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "百合股份:PE 比行业中位低 8.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}