{"F": {"ts_code": "603099.SH", "name": "长白山", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140822", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.5, "pe_ttm": 79.0374, "pb": 6.9875, "dv_ttm": 0.3766, "total_mv": 1048570.215, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-18.8, -8.3, -9.8, 43.0, 41.7, 37.5], "rev_series": [1.5, 1.9, 1.9, 6.2, 7.4, 7.9], "np_series": [-0.6, -0.5, -0.6, 1.4, 1.4, 1.3], "roe_series": [-5.3, -5.2, -6.1, 14.2, 13.1, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 37.5, "gm_std": 24.4, "gm_stab": 0.35, "gm_chg_2022": 9.0, "npm_median": 15.9, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.7, "fix_assets": 8.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.99, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 15.9, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 15.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 59.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": 161.8, "np_vol": 137.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 65.8, "fwd_pe2": 55.6, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 3.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["旅游客运业务", 30.0], ["酒店业务", 13.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 185.5, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 62.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": 4.9, "ret_120": 1.1, "ret_250": -8.6, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 42, "hard": 75, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 79 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 35%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 35%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 79.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 5% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "长白山:PE 比行业中位高 12.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}