{"F": {"ts_code": "603097.SH", "name": "江苏华辰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220512", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.0, "pe_ttm": 219.2488, "pb": 4.1187, "dv_ttm": 0.5639, "total_mv": 436878.21, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 22.5, 21.2, 22.8, 21.0, 16.2], "rev_series": [6.8, 8.7, 10.2, 15.1, 15.8, 22.6], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.2, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [21.5, 16.8, 13.7, 13.8, 9.4, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.3, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.9, "capex_dep": 4.12, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 65.5, "debt_mv": 14.0, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 30.1, "np_cagr3": -8.3, "rev_yoy": -21.9, "np_yoy": -106.7, "np_vol": 22.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["箱式变电站", 22.0], ["干式变压器", 12.0], ["油浸式变压器", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.9, "ret_prev2_year": -2.0, "ret_ytd": -5.8, "ret_pivot": 48.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": 8.0, "ret_120": -28.4, "ret_250": 17.3, "mdd_250": -50.6, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 39, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 219.2 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 4.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 219.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 8% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "江苏华辰:PE 比行业中位高 175.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}