{"F": {"ts_code": "603096.SH", "name": "新经典", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.71, "pe_ttm": 32.6163, "pb": 1.3376, "dv_ttm": 3.8192, "total_mv": 242302.5566, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.0, 47.5, 48.9, 48.7, 47.2, 49.5], "rev_series": [8.8, 9.2, 9.4, 9.0, 8.2, 6.5], "np_series": [2.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.6, 1.3, 0.8], "roe_series": [11.1, 6.6, 7.0, 8.1, 6.5, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 48.7, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.2, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 4.5, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 102.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.7, "np_cagr3": -17.5, "rev_yoy": -8.4, "np_yoy": -5.8, "np_vol": 23.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 30.8, "fwd_pe2": 29.1, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 5.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纸质图书", 87.0], ["数字内容", 8.0], ["版权运营", 3.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.2, "ret_prev2_year": 1.0, "ret_ytd": -6.6, "ret_pivot": 16.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": 6.1, "ret_120": -12.7, "ret_250": -15.8, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 29.0, "pos_52w": 80.3}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 67, "hard": 12, "bondness": 79}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 102%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 -11.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.7%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.6 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 6% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "新经典:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}