{"F": {"ts_code": "603091.SH", "name": "众鑫股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240920", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.9, "pe_ttm": 21.6057, "pb": 3.2577, "dv_ttm": 1.3212, "total_mv": 742867.017, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.9, 33.8, 28.6, 32.0, 35.0, 32.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 13.2, 13.3, 15.5, 15.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.9, 2.3, 3.2, 2.7], "roe_series": [42.1, 21.7, 26.2, 23.9, 21.0, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -11.4, "npm_median": 17.5, "roe_median": 21.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.7, "fix_assets": 14.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.26, "capex_dep": 3.43, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 26.1, "debt_mv": 6.9, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": 11.8, "rev_yoy": 33.7, "np_yoy": 66.6, "np_vol": 39.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 11.6, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": 86.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["餐饮具", 47.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.4, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 101.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": 19.1, "mdd_250": -28.8, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 85.1}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 53, "hard": 76, "bondness": 38}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 15 亿,占总资产 48%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.6%,股息率 1.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 48%)和定价权(毛利率 32.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 3.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.6 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 12% / -12%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "众鑫股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点。"]}}