{"F": {"ts_code": "603090.SH", "name": "宏盛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.45, "pe_ttm": 63.4028, "pb": 6.6867, "dv_ttm": 0.7067, "total_mv": 424500.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.4, 18.0, 19.4, 24.9, 26.0, 25.7], "rev_series": [3.3, 5.6, 7.1, 7.0, 7.1, 7.6], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.8], "roe_series": [1.3, 2.9, 10.2, 9.8, 8.7, 13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 24.9, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 5.3, "pb_calc": 6.69, "capex_dep": 5.71, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 39.5, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": 15.6, "rev_yoy": 22.7, "np_yoy": -33.7, "np_vol": 99.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["换热器", 44.0], ["锂电池PACK", 2.0], ["锂电池", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 226.1, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 231.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.0, "ret_60": -26.4, "ret_120": -36.8, "ret_250": 27.6, "mdd_250": -64.0, "vol_250": 72.4, "pos_52w": 43.9}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 46, "hard": 32, "bondness": 46}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 63.4 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 5.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -26% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "宏盛股份:PE 比行业中位高 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}