{"F": {"ts_code": "603089.SH", "name": "正裕工业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4564, "dv_ttm": 1.0309, "total_mv": 267447.721, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.3, 21.1, 21.2, 24.6, 24.1, 20.8], "rev_series": [11.4, 16.1, 17.0, 17.6, 23.0, 27.8], "np_series": [1.1, 0.6, 0.7, 0.6, 0.7, 1.1], "roe_series": [11.9, 6.0, 6.5, 5.2, 6.0, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -13.7, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.8, "fix_assets": 15.4, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 1.46, "capex_dep": 2.6, "interest_debt": 9.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 51.6, "debt_mv": 35.4, "payout": 26.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.8, "np_cagr3": 14.3, "rev_yoy": 0.7, "np_yoy": -127.7, "np_vol": 31.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["汽车悬架系统减震器", 25.0], ["汽车减震器", 25.0], ["发动机密封件", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.3, "ret_prev2_year": -22.3, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": 40.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -25.4, "ret_250": -42.1, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 59, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 2% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "正裕工业:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}