{"F": {"ts_code": "603087.SH", "name": "甘李药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.1, "pe_ttm": 36.4274, "pb": 3.5766, "dv_ttm": 1.4262, "total_mv": 4187999.722, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [90.9, 89.0, 76.3, 73.3, 74.8, 75.8], "rev_series": [33.6, 36.1, 17.1, 26.1, 30.5, 40.5], "np_series": [12.3, 14.5, -4.4, 3.4, 6.1, 11.4], "roe_series": [17.1, 15.2, -4.5, 3.3, 5.6, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.1, "np_ttm": 11.5, "ocf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 75.8, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -14.6, "npm_median": 20.2, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.4, "fix_assets": 35.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.58, "capex_dep": 3.41, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 8.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 51.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 33.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": 1.0, "np_vol": 101.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 29.8, "fwd_pe2": 24.9, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["生物制品(原料药及制剂产品)", 44.0], ["特许经营权", 2.0], ["国际-特许权服务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.3, "ret_prev2_year": -15.7, "ret_ytd": 4.5, "ret_pivot": 97.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 25.6, "ret_120": 14.7, "ret_250": -0.6, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 89.2}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 74, "hard": 44, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.4 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 75.8%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 75.8%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 75.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 3.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.4 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 26% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "甘李药业:PE 比行业中位高 4.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}