{"F": {"ts_code": "603086.SH", "name": "先达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.15, "pe_ttm": 36.6022, "pb": 1.2546, "dv_ttm": 1.626, "total_mv": 267410.0565, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 22.8, 27.2, 11.6, 12.2, 22.6], "rev_series": [19.0, 22.0, 31.3, 24.6, 24.2, 23.6], "np_series": [1.8, 1.8, 3.8, -1.0, -0.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [10.8, 10.0, 19.0, -5.0, -1.3, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -5.6, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 22.6, "gm_std": 6.2, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.5, "fix_assets": 11.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.25, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 34.5, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -8.9, "np_cagr3": -28.9, "rev_yoy": 10.5, "np_yoy": -46.8, "np_vol": 258.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["除草剂", 47.0], ["杀菌剂", 3.0], ["中间体", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 94.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.7, "ret_ytd": -24.3, "ret_pivot": 71.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -27.8, "ret_250": -38.4, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 33.7, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 44, "hard": 46, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 37 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 7% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "先达股份:PE 比行业中位高 15.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点。"]}}