{"F": {"ts_code": "603085.SH", "name": "天成自控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.13, "pe_ttm": 35.8438, "pb": 4.0365, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 402262.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 16.0, 14.1, 20.7, 18.9, 17.6], "rev_series": [14.3, 17.0, 14.2, 14.3, 22.3, 30.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.3, -2.7, 0.1, -0.2, 0.8], "roe_series": [6.8, 2.8, -28.0, 1.6, -1.9, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 10.0, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.7, "fix_assets": 11.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 4.04, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 72.1, "debt_mv": 13.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 28.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 32.4, "np_yoy": 117.4, "np_vol": 548.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 31.7, "fwd_pe2": 25.3, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["车辆座椅及配件", 43.0], ["航空座椅配件及其它", 4.0], ["航空座椅及配件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.2, "ret_prev2_year": 6.4, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 31.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": -11.4, "ret_120": -9.5, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -38.3, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 70.2}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 43, "hard": 51, "bondness": 4}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.0%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.8 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -11% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "天成自控:PE 比行业中位高 5.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点。"]}}