{"F": {"ts_code": "603081.SH", "name": "大丰实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.05, "pe_ttm": 64.4132, "pb": 1.3176, "dv_ttm": 0.597, "total_mv": 424611.5955, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 30.4, 29.9, 25.0, 33.4, 25.0], "rev_series": [25.1, 29.6, 28.4, 19.4, 18.4, 23.8], "np_series": [3.1, 3.9, 2.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.9], "roe_series": [14.6, 16.0, 10.5, 3.5, 2.2, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.9, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 9.8, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 29.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.4, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 0.14, "interest_debt": 20.3, "debt_ebitda": 20.6, "debt_ratio": 57.8, "debt_mv": 47.9, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": -32.6, "rev_yoy": 20.1, "np_yoy": -29.1, "np_vol": 38.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 32.4, "fwd_pe2": 27.7, "fwd_g1": 99.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["文化体育装备", 22.0], ["文体旅科技装备-分部", 22.0], ["数字艺术科技-分部", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.0, "ret_ytd": -28.1, "ret_pivot": 16.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 5.2, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -27.1, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 53, "hard": 12, "bondness": 49}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 64.4 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 32.4 倍,次年 27.7 倍,PEG 1.91。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.8%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 5% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "大丰实业:PE 比行业中位高 22.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}