{"F": {"ts_code": "603076.SH", "name": "乐惠国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.87, "pe_ttm": 126.7794, "pb": 1.9702, "dv_ttm": 0.9583, "total_mv": 251903.6131, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 23.7, 22.9, 22.3, 24.5, 22.0], "rev_series": [8.5, 9.9, 12.0, 16.5, 14.9, 15.8], "np_series": [1.1, 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [13.1, 4.3, 1.7, 1.5, 1.6, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 2.98, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 63.5, "debt_mv": 29.1, "payout": 93.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.4, "np_cagr3": 6.5, "rev_yoy": 27.5, "np_yoy": -25.7, "np_vol": 32.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["酒类酿造设备", 25.0], ["啤酒酿造设备", 25.0], ["无菌灌装设备", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.6, "ret_prev2_year": -13.9, "ret_ytd": -10.2, "ret_pivot": 14.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": -20.7, "ret_250": -26.9, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 64.4}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 49, "hard": 25, "bondness": 64}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 126.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 126.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -9% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "乐惠国际:PE 比行业中位高 84.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}