{"F": {"ts_code": "603075.SH", "name": "热威股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230911", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.15, "pe_ttm": 23.6425, "pb": 3.7664, "dv_ttm": 3.6561, "total_mv": 770597.7235, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 27.8, 29.1, 30.6, 31.1, 30.5], "rev_series": [14.6, 18.0, 16.9, 16.8, 19.2, 21.3], "np_series": [1.1, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.0, 3.2], "roe_series": [17.0, 27.8, 24.9, 16.5, 14.6, 15.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.5, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 30.5, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 14.8, "roe_median": 16.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.8, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 3.77, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 26.8, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 86.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": 10.2, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": 1.8, "np_vol": 38.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["民用电器电热元件", 80.0], ["新能源汽车电热元件", 10.0], ["商用电器/工业装备电热元件", 8.0], ["配件及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.7, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": -9.4, "ret_pivot": 27.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -14.9, "ret_120": -12.7, "ret_250": -21.9, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 32.0, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 56, "hard": 49, "bondness": 65}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 9 亿,占总资产 31%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.5%,股息率 3.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 79%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 31%)和定价权(毛利率 30.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.6 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -15% / -13%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "热威股份:PE 比行业中位低 26.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点。"]}}