{"F": {"ts_code": "603073.SH", "name": "彩蝶实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.98, "pe_ttm": 39.4287, "pb": 1.4184, "dv_ttm": 0.5889, "total_mv": 196968.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 29.4, 26.9, 25.1, 26.5, 25.0], "rev_series": [6.2, 8.3, 7.4, 7.1, 7.7, 8.1], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [21.5, 23.9, 16.4, 10.3, 7.6, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 26.5, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.6, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.42, "capex_dep": 2.32, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 17.6, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -14.1, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": -43.6, "np_vol": 23.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["涤纶面料", 19.0], ["涤纶成品面料", 19.0], ["无缝成衣", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.5, "ret_prev2_year": -26.6, "ret_ytd": -9.1, "ret_pivot": 36.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.5, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -4.7, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 32.7, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 53, "hard": 71, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.4 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%、固定资产占比 45%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 1% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "彩蝶实业:PE 比行业中位高 7.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}