{"F": {"ts_code": "603069.SH", "name": "海汽集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "公交", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.8587, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 438608.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.3, 14.1, 14.5, 13.9, 13.2, 11.2], "rev_series": [6.3, 7.3, 7.4, 8.4, 8.4, 6.2], "np_series": [-1.0, -0.7, 0.4, -0.7, -1.0, -0.6], "roe_series": [-9.3, -7.3, 4.1, -7.3, -11.4, -7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 13.9, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 9.2, "npm_median": -9.8, "roe_median": -7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.6, "fix_assets": 16.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.86, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 9.8, "debt_ebitda": 12.9, "debt_ratio": 69.2, "debt_mv": 22.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -22.5, "np_yoy": -60.7, "np_vol": 142.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 41.0], ["其他业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.7, "ret_prev2_year": -0.8, "ret_ytd": -48.9, "ret_pivot": -8.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.6, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -27.7, "ret_250": -33.1, "mdd_250": -60.7, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 45.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 68%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 68%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -0% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "海汽集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 46.6个百分点。"]}}