{"F": {"ts_code": "603067.SH", "name": "振华股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.95, "pe_ttm": 41.7093, "pb": 6.4508, "dv_ttm": 0.433, "total_mv": 2791666.353, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.2, 25.0, 27.1, 24.6, 25.2, 26.9], "rev_series": [12.8, 29.9, 35.3, 37.0, 40.7, 45.4], "np_series": [1.5, 3.1, 4.2, 3.7, 4.7, 6.6], "roe_series": [10.8, 17.2, 17.8, 13.9, 15.9, 19.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.5, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 25.2, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.2, "fix_assets": 27.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 6.45, "capex_dep": 1.46, "interest_debt": 11.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 37.6, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 20.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": 16.5, "rev_yoy": 28.1, "np_yoy": 3.5, "np_vol": 38.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 36.3, "fwd_pe2": 28.5, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["无机盐相关行业", 48.0], ["其他", 2.0], ["物流运输业", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 228.3, "ret_prev2_year": 27.3, "ret_ytd": 29.0, "ret_pivot": 439.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.0, "ret_60": 16.5, "ret_120": -1.1, "ret_250": 93.5, "mdd_250": -42.6, "vol_250": 81.0, "pos_52w": 74.9}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 51, "hard": 63, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.7 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.46 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.7 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 94%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 16% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "振华股份:PE 比行业中位高 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}