{"F": {"ts_code": "603061.SH", "name": "金海通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 308.31, "pe_ttm": 98.7248, "pb": 14.1417, "dv_ttm": 0.085, "total_mv": 2682297.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.6, 57.4, 57.4, 49.2, 47.5, 52.2], "rev_series": [1.9, 4.2, 4.3, 3.5, 4.1, 7.0], "np_series": [0.6, 1.5, 1.5, 0.8, 0.8, 1.8], "roe_series": [28.4, 44.0, 30.5, 8.6, 5.8, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 52.2, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 25.3, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.6, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.14, "capex_dep": 20.32, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 12.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.9, "np_cagr3": 4.7, "rev_yoy": 95.4, "np_yoy": 125.2, "np_vol": 84.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 55.6, "fwd_pe2": 34.5, "fwd_g1": 77.0, "fwd_g2": 61.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.8, "ret_prev2_year": -24.1, "ret_ytd": 219.3, "ret_pivot": 710.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -4.3, "ret_120": 90.5, "ret_250": 339.6, "mdd_250": -53.7, "vol_250": 75.4, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 66, "hard": 20, "bondness": 7}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 98.7 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 55.6 倍,次年 34.5 倍,PEG 0.91。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.2%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 20.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 340%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -4% / 90%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "金海通:PE 比行业中位高 17.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}