{"F": {"ts_code": "603057.SH", "name": "紫燕食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "熟食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.69, "pe_ttm": 43.2552, "pb": 4.0651, "dv_ttm": 0.87, "total_mv": 858872.935, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 21.6, 16.0, 22.5, 22.9, 22.6], "rev_series": [26.1, 30.9, 36.0, 35.5, 33.6, 32.4], "np_series": [3.6, 3.3, 2.2, 3.3, 3.5, 2.4], "roe_series": [37.1, 28.0, 13.7, 16.2, 17.0, 11.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.3, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.4, "fcf_yield": -6.3, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -10.1, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 16.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.8, "fix_assets": 13.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 4.07, "capex_dep": 5.32, "interest_debt": 17.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 55.8, "debt_mv": 20.5, "payout": 97.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.5, "np_cagr3": 2.1, "rev_yoy": 12.9, "np_yoy": -35.9, "np_vol": 30.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 32.4, "fwd_pe2": 26.7, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["产品收入", 45.0], ["包材收入", 2.0], ["包材", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.0, "ret_prev2_year": -2.0, "ret_ytd": 2.6, "ret_pivot": 39.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -12.5, "ret_120": -31.5, "ret_250": -13.6, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 46.9, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 46, "hard": 46, "bondness": 72}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 43.3 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 5.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.3 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -12% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "紫燕食品:PE 比行业中位高 22.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}