{"F": {"ts_code": "603053.SH", "name": "成都燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.87, "pe_ttm": 17.3033, "pb": 1.619, "dv_ttm": 3.3822, "total_mv": 788445.43, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 19.5, 19.0, 18.8, 17.4, 17.9], "rev_series": [41.7, 43.8, 48.4, 51.7, 52.7, 53.5], "np_series": [4.1, 4.9, 4.9, 5.3, 4.9, 4.8], "roe_series": [11.7, 12.9, 12.2, 12.3, 10.7, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.2, "np_ttm": 4.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 32.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.62, "capex_dep": 0.35, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 54.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": -0.7, "rev_yoy": -4.5, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": 8.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.4, "ret_prev2_year": 1.0, "ret_ytd": -4.6, "ret_pivot": 17.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -10.4, "ret_250": -15.4, "mdd_250": -29.3, "vol_250": 24.7, "pos_52w": 78.3}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 51, "hard": 62, "bondness": 56}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 54%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 3.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.3 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 3% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "成都燃气:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点。"]}}