{"F": {"ts_code": "603052.SH", "name": "可川科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221011", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.08, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.8762, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1034938.3284, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.2, 26.3, 27.3, 21.8, 18.6, 14.4], "rev_series": [5.6, 7.5, 9.1, 7.2, 7.8, 9.2], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 1.6, 1.0, 0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [24.9, 26.8, 20.9, 8.5, 5.9, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.5, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.88, "capex_dep": 2.68, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 40.0, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 50.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 0.7, "np_cagr3": -53.7, "rev_yoy": 7.0, "np_yoy": -212.2, "np_vol": 48.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电池类功能性器件", 39.0], ["电池功能性器件", 39.0], ["结构类功能性器件", 9.0], ["结构件功能性器件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.9, "ret_prev2_year": 15.9, "ret_ytd": 74.6, "ret_pivot": 198.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": -35.8, "ret_120": -5.5, "ret_250": 71.9, "mdd_250": -61.6, "vol_250": 73.8, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 52, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 72%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -36% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "可川科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}