{"F": {"ts_code": "603051.SH", "name": "鹿山新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "胶黏剂及胶带", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220325", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.18, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9987, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 344880.0822, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 14.8, 9.9, 4.9, 10.0, 10.9], "rev_series": [10.1, 16.9, 26.2, 29.5, 20.7, 15.2], "np_series": [1.2, 1.1, 0.7, -0.9, 0.2, -0.7], "roe_series": [19.8, 16.2, 7.2, -6.5, 1.2, -4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.2, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 10.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -12.8, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.5, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 28.8, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 222.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -16.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.2, "np_yoy": 179.6, "np_vol": 226.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 27.0], ["功能性聚烯烃热熔胶", 18.0], ["热熔胶膜", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.1, "ret_prev2_year": -30.9, "ret_ytd": -0.0, "ret_pivot": 21.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -5.7, "ret_250": 2.6, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 47.8, "pos_52w": 76.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 28, "bondness": 64}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "鹿山新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.0个百分点。"]}}