{"F": {"ts_code": "603049.SH", "name": "中策橡胶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250605", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.17, "pe_ttm": 10.2852, "pb": 1.7439, "dv_ttm": 2.8503, "total_mv": 4387294.2552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 16.2, 15.2, 19.3, 19.5, 19.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 318.9, 352.5, 392.5, 449.6], "np_series": [null, null, 12.2, 26.4, 37.9, 41.5], "roe_series": [21.0, 13.5, 11.0, 20.3, 23.9, 19.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 465.8, "np_ttm": 42.7, "ocf_ttm": 27.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 19.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.5, "fix_assets": 247.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 1.32, "interest_debt": 147.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 33.7, "payout": 28.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": 50.2, "rev_yoy": 7.4, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 51.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 51.0, "earn_yield": 9.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 9.6, "fwd_pe2": 8.5, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 14.5, "ret_120": 0.3, "ret_250": 9.7, "mdd_250": -26.3, "vol_250": 27.1, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 45, "hard": 71, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.3 倍 粗算,约 51%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 14% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "中策橡胶:PE 比行业中位低 19.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.0个百分点。"]}}