{"F": {"ts_code": "603041.SH", "name": "美思德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "聚氨酯", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170330", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.27, "pe_ttm": 33.3909, "pb": 1.3492, "dv_ttm": 1.0531, "total_mv": 206407.4579, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 23.9, 27.6, 38.3, 28.9, 21.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 4.9, 5.0, 5.0, 6.0, 6.2], "np_series": [1.1, 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [13.2, 7.0, 6.9, 7.8, 4.4, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -10.7, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.9, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 34.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": -10.5, "rev_yoy": 13.6, "np_yoy": 15.8, "np_vol": 33.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["硬泡匀泡剂", 26.0], ["软泡匀泡剂", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.2, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -5.5, "ret_pivot": 30.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.6, "ret_60": -2.5, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": -14.8, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 45, "hard": 57, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.4 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "美思德:PE 比行业中位低 2.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}