{"F": {"ts_code": "603038.SH", "name": "华立股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.12, "pe_ttm": 54.4688, "pb": 3.0362, "dv_ttm": 0.3102, "total_mv": 433107.4852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.6, 10.5, 18.5, 21.6, 27.7, 28.7], "rev_series": [8.7, 11.6, 7.7, 7.9, 10.5, 12.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [3.1, 1.8, 0.8, 1.4, 1.7, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.7, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 6.5, "pb_calc": 3.04, "capex_dep": 1.78, "interest_debt": 8.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 45.9, "debt_mv": 18.9, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 26.2, "np_yoy": 319.7, "np_vol": 44.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["饰面板", 13.0], ["板材装饰材料", 13.0], ["饰边条", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.2, "ret_prev2_year": 85.8, "ret_ytd": 0.4, "ret_pivot": 112.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.8, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": 2.4, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 70.0}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 43, "hard": 36, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.5 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 2% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "华立股份:PE 比行业中位高 18.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点。"]}}