{"F": {"ts_code": "603037.SH", "name": "凯众股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.32, "pe_ttm": 41.432, "pb": 2.8596, "dv_ttm": 1.938, "total_mv": 275067.4224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 36.1, 32.7, 35.0, 33.4, 28.5], "rev_series": [4.9, 5.5, 6.4, 7.4, 7.5, 8.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [9.7, 9.6, 8.9, 10.3, 9.7, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 33.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 11.8, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.76, "capex_dep": 2.55, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 37.3, "debt_mv": 13.4, "payout": 72.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": -19.0, "np_vol": 11.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["减震元件", 34.0], ["踏板总成", 15.0], ["胶轮", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.7, "ret_prev2_year": -4.5, "ret_ytd": -27.6, "ret_pivot": 31.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": -10.7, "ret_120": -29.5, "ret_250": -19.8, "mdd_250": -55.9, "vol_250": 48.0, "pos_52w": 52.2}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 55, "hard": 31, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.4 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.4%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.55 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.4 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -11% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "凯众股份:PE 比行业中位高 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}