{"F": {"ts_code": "603032.SH", "name": "德新科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.21, "pe_ttm": 60.8874, "pb": 3.7735, "dv_ttm": 0.2238, "total_mv": 448029.8354, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.2, 55.9, 63.6, 51.2, 30.9, 35.4], "rev_series": [0.5, 2.7, 5.8, 5.6, 3.6, 5.6], "np_series": [-0.1, 0.7, 1.6, 1.1, -1.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [-1.3, 9.8, 17.9, 9.5, -13.0, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 51.2, "gm_std": 12.4, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 50.4, "npm_median": 19.4, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.5, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 22.2, "pb_calc": 3.77, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 24.1, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 23.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": -36.1, "rev_yoy": 22.7, "np_yoy": 138.8, "np_vol": 394.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["精密制造业务", 47.0], ["精密制造", 47.0], ["客运服务业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.2, "ret_prev2_year": -33.9, "ret_ytd": 0.5, "ret_pivot": 40.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -12.6, "ret_120": 3.3, "ret_250": -2.0, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 58.5, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 63, "hard": 28, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 60.9 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 50.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.9 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -13% / 3%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "德新科技:PE 比行业中位高 25.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点。"]}}