{"F": {"ts_code": "603029.SH", "name": "天鹅股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "农用机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.67, "pe_ttm": 26.6322, "pb": 2.1289, "dv_ttm": 1.1098, "total_mv": 202277.114, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 28.7, 33.2, 35.1, 35.2, 30.6], "rev_series": [4.5, 5.2, 6.5, 7.0, 7.7, 9.6], "np_series": [0.1, 0.4, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [1.9, 4.9, 7.4, 7.9, 7.9, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.0, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.6, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 60.4, "debt_mv": 12.9, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 9.2, "rev_yoy": 13.4, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 60.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["收获机械产品", 29.0], ["收获机械", 29.0], ["棉花加工机械产品", 18.0], ["棉机设备", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.6, "ret_prev2_year": -14.8, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.2, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -22.2, "ret_250": -12.1, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 56, "hard": 25, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.2%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 8% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "天鹅股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}