{"F": {"ts_code": "603027.SH", "name": "千禾味业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160307", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.5, "pe_ttm": 26.6114, "pb": 2.7985, "dv_ttm": 3.4275, "total_mv": 998053.95, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.8, 40.4, 36.6, 37.1, 37.2, 37.8], "rev_series": [16.9, 19.3, 24.4, 32.1, 30.7, 25.7], "np_series": [2.1, 2.2, 3.4, 5.3, 5.1, 3.5], "roe_series": [11.8, 11.1, 15.5, 17.7, 14.1, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.6, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 5.5, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 14.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.4, "fix_assets": 16.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 12.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 99.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": 0.3, "rev_yoy": 6.3, "np_yoy": 15.8, "np_vol": 34.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 21.4, "fwd_pe2": 18.6, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["酱油", 29.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0], ["其他", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.3, "ret_prev2_year": -24.0, "ret_ytd": -22.3, "ret_pivot": 0.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -2.2, "ret_120": -19.8, "ret_250": -22.0, "mdd_250": -38.3, "vol_250": 31.1, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 56, "hard": 65, "bondness": 74}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 16 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 5.5%,股息率 3.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 81%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(毛利率 37.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -2% / -20%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "千禾味业:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}