{"F": {"ts_code": "603026.SH", "name": "石大胜华", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 60.61, "pe_ttm": 27.0211, "pb": 2.6083, "dv_ttm": 0.066, "total_mv": 1410400.761, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.2, 31.5, 17.9, 6.5, 5.4, 7.0], "rev_series": [44.8, 70.6, 83.2, 56.3, 55.5, 68.1], "np_series": [2.6, 11.8, 8.9, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [13.4, 45.6, 25.3, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 85.8, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": -26.2, "fcf_ttm": -28.1, "fcf_yield": -19.9, "ocf_yield": -18.5, "gm_median": 7.0, "gm_std": 10.0, "gm_stab": -0.43, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 49.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 50.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 56.5, "debt_mv": 35.8, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.5, "np_cagr3": -73.9, "rev_yoy": 58.9, "np_yoy": 898.3, "np_vol": 158.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["产品销售", 25.0], ["产品销售：锂离子电池相关材料", 19.0], ["碳酸二甲酯系列", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.9, "ret_prev2_year": -23.6, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 129.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -26.0, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": 58.9, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 64.5, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 11, "hard": 61, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.0%,稳定度 -43%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -19.9%(经营现金流/市值 -18.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.0%,稳定度 -43%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.0 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 59%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -26% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "石大胜华:PE 比行业中位低 8.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}