{"F": {"ts_code": "603022.SH", "name": "新通联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "综合包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.15, "pe_ttm": 30.4676, "pb": 2.1521, "dv_ttm": 1.0929, "total_mv": 183000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 16.2, 17.8, 20.3, 20.1, 19.7], "rev_series": [6.8, 7.3, 7.9, 8.6, 8.8, 9.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.5, 3.0, 5.0, 6.9, 6.4, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.3, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 1.09, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 28.2, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": 18.9, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": 2.5, "np_vol": 39.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["木材产品", 21.0], ["木产品", 21.0], ["纸产品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.8, "ret_prev2_year": -29.1, "ret_ytd": -10.0, "ret_pivot": 51.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -37.4, "vol_250": 33.2, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 46, "hard": 42, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.5 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.5 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 0% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "新通联:PE 比行业中位低 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}