{"F": {"ts_code": "603019.SH", "name": "中科曙光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 82.69, "pe_ttm": 50.014, "pb": 5.2482, "dv_ttm": 0.5439, "total_mv": 12098503.7233, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.1, 23.7, 26.3, 26.3, 29.2, 30.6], "rev_series": [101.6, 112.0, 130.1, 143.5, 131.5, 149.6], "np_series": [8.2, 11.6, 15.4, 18.4, 19.1, 21.8], "roe_series": [10.3, 9.5, 10.4, 10.3, 9.8, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 165.8, "np_ttm": 24.2, "ocf_ttm": 25.1, "fcf_ttm": 11.2, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 4.1, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 43.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.25, "capex_dep": 3.8, "interest_debt": 13.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 45.4, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 20.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 27.6, "np_yoy": 33.3, "np_vol": 12.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 40.4, "fwd_pe2": 31.7, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 1.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["IT设备业务", 30.0], ["IT设备", 30.0], ["软件开发、系统集成及技术服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.0, "ret_prev2_year": 85.5, "ret_ytd": -2.9, "ret_pivot": 132.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -6.8, "ret_250": -8.8, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 56, "hard": 16, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.0 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.80 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 2% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "中科曙光:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}