{"F": {"ts_code": "603018.SH", "name": "华设集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.31, "pe_ttm": 15.56, "pb": 0.8089, "dv_ttm": 1.9448, "total_mv": 434967.4287, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.0, 31.9, 36.9, 39.0, 37.2, 33.2], "rev_series": [53.5, 58.2, 58.4, 53.5, 44.3, 41.1], "np_series": [5.8, 6.2, 6.8, 7.0, 3.8, 2.7], "roe_series": [18.7, 17.1, 16.5, 14.9, 7.5, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.2, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_yield": 8.2, "ocf_yield": 10.9, "gm_median": 36.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 3.66, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 54.5, "debt_mv": 14.0, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.0, "np_cagr3": -26.2, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": 5.2, "np_vol": 21.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.3, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["基础设施业务", 21.0], ["基础设施", 21.0], ["环保业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.3, "ret_prev2_year": 13.0, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 5.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -18.3, "ret_250": -22.1, "mdd_250": -26.6, "vol_250": 22.3, "pos_52w": 78.2}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 62, "hard": 6, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 15.6 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.9%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 3.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.6 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -3% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "华设集团:PE 比行业中位低 25.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}