{"F": {"ts_code": "603016.SH", "name": "新宏泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.0, "pe_ttm": 91.0818, "pb": 5.9996, "dv_ttm": 1.0303, "total_mv": 488928.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 30.2, 29.3, 29.0, 29.4, 28.3], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.5, 6.1, 6.3, 6.3, 6.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [7.5, 6.6, 8.4, 8.4, 8.4, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.0, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 19.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 80.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -1.7, "rev_yoy": -4.1, "np_yoy": -28.1, "np_vol": 14.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.4, "ret_prev2_year": 73.7, "ret_ytd": 10.8, "ret_pivot": 93.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.0, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": 4.5, "ret_250": 21.7, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 52.8, "pos_52w": 55.4}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 53, "hard": 15, "bondness": 57}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 91.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -11% / 4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "新宏泰:PE 比行业中位高 47.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}