{"F": {"ts_code": "603015.SH", "name": "弘讯科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.92, "pe_ttm": 110.862, "pb": 3.1875, "dv_ttm": 0.7326, "total_mv": 441407.148, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.8, 35.3, 36.1, 37.7, 37.7, 35.8], "rev_series": [7.5, 9.3, 7.3, 7.2, 8.4, 8.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.0, 6.9, 3.6, 4.8, 4.7, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 36.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": 72.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": -3.5, "rev_yoy": 1.3, "np_yoy": -11.0, "np_vol": 35.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业控制类", 42.0], ["驱动系统类", 31.0], ["新能源类", 10.0], ["新能源相关类", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.4, "ret_prev2_year": 1.7, "ret_ytd": -12.4, "ret_pivot": 72.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -13.6, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -16.1, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 49.3, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 60, "hard": 34, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 110.9 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.1%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 110.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -14% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "弘讯科技:PE 比行业中位高 33.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}