{"F": {"ts_code": "603011.SH", "name": "合锻智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.2, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.4402, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1196482.848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 31.5, 30.3, 30.9, 24.7, 23.7], "rev_series": [8.4, 12.1, 17.3, 17.7, 20.7, 21.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.6, 0.1, 0.2, -0.9, -2.5], "roe_series": [1.5, 3.7, 0.7, 0.8, -4.1, -12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.2, "np_ttm": -2.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 30.3, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.6, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 11.1, "pb_calc": 6.44, "capex_dep": 4.14, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 60.6, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 7.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": -461.3, "np_vol": 268.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 484.0, "fwd_pe2": 242.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 4.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["色选机", 25.0], ["液压机", 13.0], ["定制-液压机", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 246.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.9, "ret_ytd": 2.1, "ret_pivot": 339.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": -28.0, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": 47.1, "mdd_250": -58.3, "vol_250": 75.6, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 20, "bondness": 16}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 4.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 47%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -28% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "合锻智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}