{"F": {"ts_code": "603010.SH", "name": "万盛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141010", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6328, "dv_ttm": 0.0858, "total_mv": 678635.148, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 32.7, 22.1, 19.0, 18.5, 18.3], "rev_series": [23.3, 41.1, 35.6, 28.5, 29.6, 33.8], "np_series": [3.9, 8.2, 3.7, 1.8, 1.0, -9.6], "roe_series": [27.7, 41.4, 11.5, 4.6, 2.7, -30.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.2, "np_ttm": -9.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -11.8, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.3, "fix_assets": 26.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 2.63, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 19.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 28.7, "payout": 52.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.2, "np_yoy": -91.8, "np_vol": 412.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["聚合物功能性助剂", 30.0], ["有机胺", 9.0], ["原料及中间体", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.2, "ret_ytd": 10.4, "ret_pivot": 39.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -17.2, "ret_120": -4.4, "ret_250": 9.2, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 62.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 63, "bondness": 54}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -17% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "万盛股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}