{"F": {"ts_code": "603009.SH", "name": "北特科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140718", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.4, "pe_ttm": 120.4589, "pb": 7.5482, "dv_ttm": 0.3131, "total_mv": 1537970.712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.9, 19.1, 17.1, 17.4, 18.5, 20.1], "rev_series": [14.7, 17.4, 17.1, 18.8, 20.2, 23.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 1.2], "roe_series": [2.0, 4.3, 3.0, 3.2, 4.4, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.1, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.1, "fix_assets": 16.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 7.55, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 48.3, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 41.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 37.5, "rev_yoy": 8.2, "np_yoy": 14.8, "np_vol": 49.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 97.2, "fwd_pe2": 55.8, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 74.0, "peg": 1.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["底盘零部件分部", 21.0], ["底盘零部件", 20.0], ["汽车空调压缩机分部", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.6, "ret_prev2_year": 167.1, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 158.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.4, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -14.6, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -40.2, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 48, "hard": 63, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "北特科技:PE 比行业中位高 90.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点。"]}}