{"F": {"ts_code": "603004.SH", "name": "鼎龙科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.99, "pe_ttm": 39.1245, "pb": 2.1306, "dv_ttm": 1.0532, "total_mv": 447252.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.9, 31.0, 30.6, 40.3, 38.1, 36.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 8.3, 7.4, 7.0, 7.0], "np_series": [null, null, 1.5, 1.7, 1.6, 1.5], "roe_series": [16.5, 14.7, 19.5, 12.7, 8.4, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 36.8, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 21.5, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 6.4, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": -0.3, "rev_yoy": -2.8, "np_yoy": -40.4, "np_vol": 24.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["染发剂原料,植保材料,特种材料单体等精细化工产品", 50.0], ["染发剂原料 、植保材料、特种工程材料单体等精细化", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.2, "ret_prev2_year": -42.9, "ret_ytd": -18.4, "ret_pivot": 20.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -20.7, "ret_250": -17.1, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 40.2, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 53, "hard": 33, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.1 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.8%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.1 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -4% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "鼎龙科技:PE 比行业中位高 3.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点。"]}}