{"F": {"ts_code": "603000.SH", "name": "人民网", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "门户网站", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.76, "pe_ttm": 77.4989, "pb": 4.9386, "dv_ttm": 0.7936, "total_mv": 1853138.2836, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.8, 53.3, 51.6, 51.3, 50.6, 49.4], "rev_series": [21.0, 21.8, 19.8, 21.2, 20.9, 20.7], "np_series": [3.2, 1.7, 3.1, 3.3, 2.1, 2.1], "roe_series": [9.7, 4.9, 9.0, 9.1, 5.6, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.9, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 51.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.0, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.94, "capex_dep": 2.5, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 27.5, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 69.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.6, "np_cagr3": -11.8, "rev_yoy": 1.4, "np_yoy": 511.5, "np_vol": 47.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.1, "ret_prev2_year": -21.0, "ret_ytd": -11.4, "ret_pivot": -7.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": 5.4, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 44.4, "pos_52w": 54.6}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 67, "hard": 2, "bondness": 50}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 77.5 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 2.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 5% / -17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "人民网:PE 比行业中位低 8.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点。"]}}