{"F": {"ts_code": "601999.SH", "name": "出版传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.15, "pe_ttm": 41.988, "pb": 1.4715, "dv_ttm": 0.8392, "total_mv": 393904.0105, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 18.5, 18.1, 20.4, 22.2, 23.6], "rev_series": [25.4, 28.7, 26.1, 24.1, 24.3, 21.0], "np_series": [1.5, 1.1, 0.8, 1.1, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [6.6, 4.6, 3.1, 4.5, 4.0, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 20.4, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.4, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 33.2, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 31.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.1, "np_cagr3": 11.7, "rev_yoy": -20.9, "np_yoy": -25.8, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["教材教辅", 21.0], ["一般图书", 16.0], ["纸张、印刷耗材及票据印刷等", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.3, "ret_ytd": 5.0, "ret_pivot": 33.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 21.6, "ret_60": 26.5, "ret_120": 0.8, "ret_250": -1.0, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 85.1}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 49, "hard": 23, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.0 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 6.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 26% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "出版传媒:PE 比行业中位高 9.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}