{"F": {"ts_code": "601996.SH", "name": "丰林集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3499, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 316097.8608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.4, 13.9, 8.0, 7.8, 2.1, 1.2], "rev_series": [17.4, 20.7, 20.5, 23.4, 20.2, 17.0], "np_series": [1.7, 1.7, 0.5, 0.5, -1.2, -1.3], "roe_series": [6.1, 5.9, 1.6, 1.8, -4.4, -5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.9, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.41, "gm_chg_2022": -18.3, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.9, "fix_assets": 12.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 0.12, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 87.4, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 19.6, "payout": 240.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -6.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.4, "np_yoy": -131.5, "np_vol": 128.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["刨花板", 45.0], ["纤维板", 36.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0], ["其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": -21.6, "ret_ytd": 25.3, "ret_pivot": 66.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.5, "ret_60": 14.6, "ret_120": 12.4, "ret_250": 21.6, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 45.7, "pos_52w": 90.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 61, "bondness": 70}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 87.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 41%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 41%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 15% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "丰林集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}